New Year’s 2010 prediction:
Posted by Perry Lewis on Tue, Dec 01, 2009
In 1969, I ordered radial tires for my new car. Since most people had never even heard of radial tires, I was accused of being nuts. Over the holiday season in 1970, I ran into my aunt and informed her that someday everyone would have their own computer. Since we were still entrenched in the punch-card era, she really thought I was nuts. In 1984, I bought a Saab with a turbocharger and fuel injection. Most people thought I was nuts, and indeed, I should have waited a few years… It goes on. We were early adopters of Novell as a server operating system in the mid-80’s. We were early adopters for Citrix as a thin-client and remote access solution in the early 90’s. In 1995, I jumped on the FoxPro bandwagon for about 2 years (OK, so even I’m not perfect!). We were early adopters of SQL Server. Since it’s the end of the ‘00’s and we’re about to move to the teen years of the century, here is my earth-shattering prediction for the future:
The U S Postal Service will cease to exist, or go the way of the telegram. UPS and FedEx will continue to thrive. It will take a while, but all I see coming from the USPS is vastly more complexity for bulk mailers, higher prices and poorer service. The only thing keeping it alive is junk mail. In the Netherlands, most people have already (easily) opted out of receiving junk mail, which will undoubtedly happen here once we intelligently allow the same service. What will replace your mailed bills?
At some point in time, every utility will want to present their current and historical bills via email and online. As the cost for this service goes down and the cost for mailing and handling goes up, you should accept the inevitable and plan for the future. Or maybe I’m nuts.
Have a Happy 2010.